Looking back at the 2016 NBA Draft Big Board feels like revisiting a time capsule of basketball prophecy—some predictions aged like fine wine, others soured quicker than milk left in the sun. I remember sitting with my scouting notes that June, convinced we had one of the most talent-rich classes in recent memory. The parallels between certain prospects were uncanny, almost like how some players in the UAAP—where careers often mirror each other from youth leagues to stardom—develop on eerily similar tracks. It’s fascinating how scouting, at its core, tries to pinpoint which identical paths will lead to glory and which will fizzle out.

Ben Simmons going first overall to the Philadelphia 76ers felt like the safest bet in the draft. At LSU, he was a 6'10" point forward with vision that reminded me of a young LeBron—someone who could orchestrate an offense while guarding multiple positions. Statistically, he averaged 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in his lone college season, numbers that screamed franchise cornerstone. Fast forward to today, and Simmons has had moments of brilliance, like his All-Star selections in 2019 and 2020, but injuries and offensive limitations have kept him from reaching that superstar ceiling. I’ll admit, I was among the many who thought he’d be a perennial MVP candidate by now, but his reluctance to develop a consistent jump shot has been a glaring miss. Still, when he’s healthy, he’s a defensive force, and I can’t help but wonder what could have been if his mindset matched his physical gifts.

Then there’s Brandon Ingram, picked second by the Los Angeles Lakers. I recall watching his slender frame and smooth scoring at Duke, thinking he’d either be a bust or a star—no in-between. His rookie year was rough, averaging just 9.4 points on 40% shooting, and critics piled on, saying he was too passive. But look at him now: a 2020 Most Improved Player, an All-Star, and a cornerstone for the Pelicans. Ingram’s evolution into a clutch scorer, putting up around 23-25 points per game in recent seasons, shows how patience pays off. Personally, I’ve always had a soft spot for players who overcome early doubts, and Ingram’s journey reminds me of those UAAP stars who start slow but explode into legends. It’s a hit that took time to mature, like a fine draft-day wine.

The real gem, though, was hiding at pick 36: Malcolm Brogdon. As a second-rounder out of Virginia, he wasn’t on many big boards as a future star, but I remember noting his poise and efficiency. He went on to win Rookie of the Year in 2017—a rare feat for a second-round pick—and has carved out a solid career as a reliable combo guard. Brogdon’s story is one of those draft steals that make scouting so thrilling; it’s like finding a diamond in the rough that everyone else overlooked. In my view, he’s the kind of player who proves that intangibles matter as much as athleticism.

On the flip side, the misses still sting. Take Dragan Bender at number four to the Phoenix Suns—a 7-footer with “unicorn” potential, as we called it back then. I’ll be honest, I bought into the hype, thinking he’d be the next Kristaps Porziņģis. But his NBA career fizzled fast, with averages of around 5 points and 3 rebounds, and he was out of the league by 2020. It’s a classic case of overvaluing international mystery, and I’ve learned to be more skeptical of prospects without proven competition. Similarly, Kris Dunn at pick five to the Minnesota Timberwolves had everyone excited for his defensive tenacity, but his offense never materialized, and he’s bounced around as a role player. I thought he’d be a lockdown defender with All-Defense teams to his name, but he’s fallen short, and it’s a reminder that two-way players are rarer than we think.

What stands out to me, reflecting on this draft, is how much luck and development play into outcomes. The 2016 class produced gems like Jamal Murray (pick 7) and Pascal Siakam (pick 27), who have become champions, but also busts like Georgios Papagiannis (pick 13), who lasted just two seasons. In total, about 60% of the first-round picks have had solid NBA careers, while the rest are either role players or out of the league. From my experience, this draft taught me to value mental toughness and fit over raw talent alone. It’s not just about who looks good on paper; it’s about who can adapt and grow, much like those UAAP athletes whose parallel paths diverge based on heart and opportunity.

In conclusion, the 2016 NBA Draft Big Board is a mixed bag of hits and misses that shaped the league for years. Simmons and Ingram represent the high-risk, high-reward picks, while Brogdon and Siakam show the value of later selections. As for me, I’ve grown to appreciate the unpredictability—it keeps us scouts humble and fans on their toes. If there’s one takeaway, it’s that draft night is just the beginning; the real story unfolds on the court, where hits and misses define legacies.